OOPS, my BABIP
I did an interview in February in which Rany Jazayerli asked about my BABIP in 2008. It was incredibly low (something like .235) and he wanted to know if I thought it was fad, fluke, or fact. I said probably some of each, but I think I can keep it below average because of my pitching style. He brought up how Bannister said the same thing after his impressive '07 campaign, but soon found his BABIP even a bit above average in '08. Well, here I am a few games into the '09 season, and my BABIP against is .350! (Thanks to a 1-for-7 in tonight's game ... it was .394 going in to tonight)
Granted, I've only give up 14 hits, a few balls at people and I'm right where I'd want to be, but I want to look to see if there's more to it. First thing I want to look at is the counts I've been in so far this year. I don't have all this data available for last year, but I do know I averaged something like 13 pitches per inning last year. That should give you an idea about the counts I was in and how quickly I was getting contact. This year, I've thrown over 17 pitches per inning. Now, lots of that has to do with the fact I've been giving up more base runners per inning, so my pitches per AB may not be any higher, but I certainly don't feel as sharp yet.
After looking at my notes I've kept for '09, I've faced 46 batters so far this year after tonight. Ideally you'd want guys to be hitting in counts like 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2. Well, I've gotten contact only 9 times on those counts so far this year, and 2 of them were tonight. Hitters are 1-for-9 with 4 K's when I am ahead in the count. That comes out to a BABIP of .200.
And now for behind-in-the-count stats. Hitters have hit 12 times off me in 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1 counts. Aha!, you think. This is why his BABIP is high! He's been ahead only 9 times and behind 12, that's why hitters are getting better pitches to hit and hitting them harder. Well, batters are 2-for-12 when I am behind in the count. Go figure, a BABIP even lower at .167.
So what's the problem? I don't get hit hard when I'm ahead or when I'm behind, life is grand. Well, there are two sets of bad news. If the hitter hits the first pitch (4-for-4) his BABIP is 1.000. If he's in a 2-2 or 3-2 count (6-for-15 with 1K), his BABIP is .429. (In case you're wondering where the other hits and at bats went, I didn't mention 1-1 counts where hitters are 2-for-9 because it seems pretty uneventful: BABIP of .222)
So, it doesn't look like ahead and behind in the count are really dictating much in terms of the quality of contact guys are getting. Again, it's really early in the year, I just wanted to look at it. It seems maybe longer at bats and first pitches of the at bats are where I'm in trouble, but that seems to be two opposite ends of the spectrum being an issue and the middle ground being a strength. Probably more random than anything. Some balls have been at people, some haven't.
In fact, I have give up 14 hits this year, five of which have not left the infield. Two are jam-shot bloopers over the first baseman's head. Four are ground balls through holes and three are solid line drives. Of 46 at bats hitters have hit 33 ground balls for 9 hits (.273), 4 line drives for 3 hits (.750) and 9 fly balls for 2 hits (.222). I had one really well hit ball that could have gone for extra bases, but our speedy center fielder tracked it down for an atom ball out. It seems my BABIP is more or less random right now and hopefully tonight is a start to bring it back down to 2008-like numbers, but the type of contact I'm getting still points to good things (only 4 really hard hit balls in 46 at bats). All this brings me to my next point.
Am I missing a stat that calculates a pitchers opponents OPS against? If not, I'm proposing someone keep track of a Pitcher's Opponents' On-base Plus Slugging average. I think perhaps it's best to leave the "Pitcher's" part as assumed in the acronym and stick with OOPS. OPS has become a standard measure of hitters and a way to measure their production beyond the quick math of AVG and OBP alone. Well, why then are we stuck with WHIP for pitchers? Now, keep in mind this is coming from a pitcher with a high WHIP based on a lot of grounders through holes or knocked down for hits, so take it with a grain of salt. But seriously, why don't we have something like this? And if we do, please let me know because I've never seen it anywhere. I pride myself in getting guys to hit the ball softly, not hardly (I've used this before, but again, pun intended, the play on words is meaningful) so why should a bloop single I give up "cost" the same as a home run or a liner off the wall for extra bases? It's certainly not the same for the offense. In the first 10 innings I took the field this year I gave up a single in all of them. Twice I gave up a few hits strung together. But I have only given up 2 runs in 10.2 innings now for a 1.69 ERA. The ERA sounds great, but my WHIP is 1.5 which isn't so hot.
I've given up 14 hits...all for singles. I've only walked 2 batters in 10.2 innings. Opponents are slugging (and hitting) .304 off me and their on-base percentage is .327. That makes an OOPS of .631 which sounds a lot better than a 1.5 WHIP. I haven't thrown well this year, I'll be the first to admit it. I'm not trying to make up a stat to think otherwise, but I think I have limited damage by keeping the hits to singles and it got me to thinking maybe there's something to this.
I'd be interested to see a correlation between ERA and other pitching stats with OOPS because it would seem to make sense OOPS would be a pretty good indicator of your effectiveness. I agree WHIP gives us more info than just ERA does, but OOPS seems like a happy medium or middle ground. It takes into account the frequency of base runners, but it also judges how quickly they are hopping from base to base. There's a lot out there about increasing K's and limiting BB's and HR's in statistical analysis, but what is there for guys who only give up one base at a time? If a hitter is judged by their OPS, shouldn't a pitcher be judged by what they make the average hitter against them? And shouldn't the type of hits given up (aside from just HR's) indicate the type of pitcher a guy is instead of counting them all the same in WHIP? I digress...I can sleep now. Good night.
Granted, I've only give up 14 hits, a few balls at people and I'm right where I'd want to be, but I want to look to see if there's more to it. First thing I want to look at is the counts I've been in so far this year. I don't have all this data available for last year, but I do know I averaged something like 13 pitches per inning last year. That should give you an idea about the counts I was in and how quickly I was getting contact. This year, I've thrown over 17 pitches per inning. Now, lots of that has to do with the fact I've been giving up more base runners per inning, so my pitches per AB may not be any higher, but I certainly don't feel as sharp yet.
After looking at my notes I've kept for '09, I've faced 46 batters so far this year after tonight. Ideally you'd want guys to be hitting in counts like 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2. Well, I've gotten contact only 9 times on those counts so far this year, and 2 of them were tonight. Hitters are 1-for-9 with 4 K's when I am ahead in the count. That comes out to a BABIP of .200.
And now for behind-in-the-count stats. Hitters have hit 12 times off me in 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1 counts. Aha!, you think. This is why his BABIP is high! He's been ahead only 9 times and behind 12, that's why hitters are getting better pitches to hit and hitting them harder. Well, batters are 2-for-12 when I am behind in the count. Go figure, a BABIP even lower at .167.
So what's the problem? I don't get hit hard when I'm ahead or when I'm behind, life is grand. Well, there are two sets of bad news. If the hitter hits the first pitch (4-for-4) his BABIP is 1.000. If he's in a 2-2 or 3-2 count (6-for-15 with 1K), his BABIP is .429. (In case you're wondering where the other hits and at bats went, I didn't mention 1-1 counts where hitters are 2-for-9 because it seems pretty uneventful: BABIP of .222)
So, it doesn't look like ahead and behind in the count are really dictating much in terms of the quality of contact guys are getting. Again, it's really early in the year, I just wanted to look at it. It seems maybe longer at bats and first pitches of the at bats are where I'm in trouble, but that seems to be two opposite ends of the spectrum being an issue and the middle ground being a strength. Probably more random than anything. Some balls have been at people, some haven't.
In fact, I have give up 14 hits this year, five of which have not left the infield. Two are jam-shot bloopers over the first baseman's head. Four are ground balls through holes and three are solid line drives. Of 46 at bats hitters have hit 33 ground balls for 9 hits (.273), 4 line drives for 3 hits (.750) and 9 fly balls for 2 hits (.222). I had one really well hit ball that could have gone for extra bases, but our speedy center fielder tracked it down for an atom ball out. It seems my BABIP is more or less random right now and hopefully tonight is a start to bring it back down to 2008-like numbers, but the type of contact I'm getting still points to good things (only 4 really hard hit balls in 46 at bats). All this brings me to my next point.
Am I missing a stat that calculates a pitchers opponents OPS against? If not, I'm proposing someone keep track of a Pitcher's Opponents' On-base Plus Slugging average. I think perhaps it's best to leave the "Pitcher's" part as assumed in the acronym and stick with OOPS. OPS has become a standard measure of hitters and a way to measure their production beyond the quick math of AVG and OBP alone. Well, why then are we stuck with WHIP for pitchers? Now, keep in mind this is coming from a pitcher with a high WHIP based on a lot of grounders through holes or knocked down for hits, so take it with a grain of salt. But seriously, why don't we have something like this? And if we do, please let me know because I've never seen it anywhere. I pride myself in getting guys to hit the ball softly, not hardly (I've used this before, but again, pun intended, the play on words is meaningful) so why should a bloop single I give up "cost" the same as a home run or a liner off the wall for extra bases? It's certainly not the same for the offense. In the first 10 innings I took the field this year I gave up a single in all of them. Twice I gave up a few hits strung together. But I have only given up 2 runs in 10.2 innings now for a 1.69 ERA. The ERA sounds great, but my WHIP is 1.5 which isn't so hot.
I've given up 14 hits...all for singles. I've only walked 2 batters in 10.2 innings. Opponents are slugging (and hitting) .304 off me and their on-base percentage is .327. That makes an OOPS of .631 which sounds a lot better than a 1.5 WHIP. I haven't thrown well this year, I'll be the first to admit it. I'm not trying to make up a stat to think otherwise, but I think I have limited damage by keeping the hits to singles and it got me to thinking maybe there's something to this.
I'd be interested to see a correlation between ERA and other pitching stats with OOPS because it would seem to make sense OOPS would be a pretty good indicator of your effectiveness. I agree WHIP gives us more info than just ERA does, but OOPS seems like a happy medium or middle ground. It takes into account the frequency of base runners, but it also judges how quickly they are hopping from base to base. There's a lot out there about increasing K's and limiting BB's and HR's in statistical analysis, but what is there for guys who only give up one base at a time? If a hitter is judged by their OPS, shouldn't a pitcher be judged by what they make the average hitter against them? And shouldn't the type of hits given up (aside from just HR's) indicate the type of pitcher a guy is instead of counting them all the same in WHIP? I digress...I can sleep now. Good night.
I'm the first to admit that I'm not much of a stats person - but it seems to me that that you are doing just fine! The hits you've up - nothing glaring pops out. I'd say keep doing what you're doing!
Julia
http://werbiefitz.mlblogs.com/
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I just read some Bill James on this. Typically, line drives result in around .750, ground balls are about .200 (more like .275 if you have guys like Juan Pierre running), but flyballs are all over the place with weak hitters hitting about .125 while guys like Ryan Howard hit .400 - .500.
So it sounds like about right, except for the groundballs in that normally you'd expect more like 6-7 hits in 33 than 9, so you've been a little unlucky on that.
Also given that an average OPS is about .750, sounds like you're doing a great job on keeping the XBH hits. Another key pitching stat is HR/9 of which you're obviously zero and lots of times 1.00 is a good threshold number.
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I'm not a stats person by nature, but after reading your blog closely it is clear that baseball can create a stat for anything. It is not what any individual stat says, but how it is used and interpreted. And also if you see the glass half-empty or half-full.
If I see a low ERA but a high WHIP I think, not a lights out type pitcher, but keeps a good head when batters get hits. Gets out of jams. I think the true mark of a good pitcher is not when they get 3 strikeouts in an inning, but when they get into trouble (which every good pitcher will) can they get out of trouble.
I agree, a single has a different value than a homerun, it just depends on what the scouts value the most. Anyone who gives up a bunch of homeruns will not only have a high whip, but also a high ERA, so the combining of the two values essentially gives you the info you want about a pitcher.
Don't worry, keep pitching well, and maybe I'll get to see you pitch against my yankees someday.
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