Fan Mail Friday, June 5th, "National Donut Day"

Ah, a "Pulp Fiction" reference. Good on you, Disco, as they say in Australia.
Keep up the entertaining blog. Good luck in the career.

Now I want a Chocolate Glazed donut. Seeing that I live in the South, KK is preferred. Come to think of it, I don't even know where there is a DD.

Boston Kreme from DD! Pure heaven! Great post and an impressive amount of work!

Julia
http://werbiefitz.mlblogs.com/

Fantastic job, Disco. I am a member of John W's fantasy league and you have provided the perfect blend of seriousness, research, and tongue-in-cheekness to the topic that has been a staple of our league's Perfect Scramble Debate for well over a decade. I was skeptical, but your inclusion of Strawberry Glazed to the mix validates my voice in the wilderness that has been ridiculed for years. Your wife's management consulting approach gives additional credibility to your conclusions.
The moment you reach the bigs, you will be added to Schooled Muggsy's fantasy roster.

Disco! Disco! Disco!!

Another League member here. Amazing post.

Your treatment of THE question for the ages will go down in history. Did I say seminal? No, I meant epoch-making.

We will now date things Pre-Disco Donut Days (PD3) and Post-Disco Donut Days (PD3) -- oh wait, we will work on that one.

P.S. When you make it to the bigs, there is going to be a rush to get you on our fantasy teams! And make sure you thank thank Mrs. Disco for us.

Elegant theory to be sure, Mr. and Mrs. Disco. It is without a doubt the best donut analysis by AA submarine pitcher and his wife I've personally read in the past year. But will it work in practice? I'll let you know after Draft 2010 in Boston.

I am one of the owners of Chico's Bail Bonds in the now famous (or infamous) BBL. Excellent work on solving the great donut debate. Some people might think your skills and insight are wasted on donuts, and are better suited for global debates like finding a means for peace in the Middle East. But I think you are on the right track. If peace talks among the Israelis and Palestinians begin the day with the proper donut scramble, it's all downhill after that.

Without a doubt the most brilliant donut analysis I've ever read, and -- believe it or not -- I have read quite a few donut analyses. I'm a member of John W's league and have read literally tens of thousands of words of arguments over "KK," "DD," and the perfect scramble. The finest legal minds in America have not been able to create what you created.

You are my new hero in baseball. If there is any justice in the universe, you will be called all the way up . . . and in a perfect storybook ending to the perfect storybook season . . . pitch the last outs of the World Series. Leading, of course, to this blog being read by millions.

Viva Disco!

Dear Disco and Mrs. Disco, I'm the co-owner of Roy Hobbs, at one time the most feared team in the BBL until the rest of the owners voted to eliminate "keepers" (not that I'm bitter or anything). I'm also an architect of the infamous "John Kruk for Albert Belle" trade that secured a pennant and a target of the infamous "Juantergate" scandal involving Juan Gonzalez and whether he qualified for OF in certain session. But enough about me - you guys rock!!! Can't tell you how much time has been taken up over the years with the "donut debate" (often DD vs KK, but usually about the scramble) and to have an official ruling on this will be welcome news to all of our families and employers (including those in the US gov't). I have only one quibble (crumb??) I need to mention . . . if the league (or clubhouse) is on notice that one of its owners (or players) loves a particular type of donut, can't that be worked into the mix as an override? Case in point, I've informed next year's hosts that I'd like a Blueberry Crumb and a Vanilla Creme (both regrettably absent from your awesome study), and I fear that your definitive study will give the hosts cover to shut me out. I need your help Disco . . . can you please save me my freedom of [donut] choice!? Sincerely, BKB PS - one way or the other, this blog still rocks.

Dear Disco and Mrs. Disco, I'm the co-owner of Roy Hobbs, at one time the most feared team in the BBL until the rest of the owners voted to eliminate "keepers" (not that I'm bitter or anything). I'm also an architect of the infamous "John Kruk for Albert Belle" trade that secured a pennant and a target of the infamous "Juantergate" scandal involving Juan Gonzalez and whether he qualified for OF in certain session. But enough about me - you guys rock!!! Can't tell you how much time has been taken up over the years with the "donut debate" (often DD vs KK, but usually about the scramble) and to have an official ruling on this will be welcome news to all of our families and employers (including those in the US gov't). I have only one quibble (crumb??) I need to mention . . . if the league (or clubhouse) is on notice that one of its owners (or players) loves a particular type of donut, can't that be worked into the mix as an override? Case in point, I've informed next year's hosts that I'd like a Blueberry Crumb and a Vanilla Creme (both regrettably absent from your awesome study), and I fear that your definitive study will give the hosts cover to shut me out. I need your help Disco . . . can you please save me my freedom of [donut] choice!? Sincerely, BKB PS - one way or the other, this blog still rocks.

Typical of Roy Hobbs to make a request for an exception in TWO identical posts. Brian and his co-manager, Theo (whose venn circle is almost co-equal to the Obamas), are notorious for taking FOREVER to make a draft pick, often speaking in a code that sounds like they're playing Battleship, and invoking obscure rules like "no diving," which may or may not have cost a certain league member the Harvard Law intramural flag football championship.

Gentlemen,

Must we all air out our dirty BBL laundry in Mr. and Mrs. Disco's blog for all the public to see? All this me, me, me from you guys when you you truly all know it is all about ME.

Mr. and Mrs. Disco,
Keep up the good work. And If I have anything to say about it, there will be NO Blueberry donuts next year. (Can you tell I am a DD guy?)

PS Given your numbers this year, I hope you get to AAA soon -- if you don't, someone will have some splainin' to do...

PPS Your MIT reference was almost right, not need to apologize -- I teach science and coach baseball there in the summertime.

Speaking of Andy (which we do ad nauseum) he teaches Sabermetrics (or some form of baseball statistical voodoo) at Tufts, so when he says you should be in AAA soon, he knows what he's talking about. Then again, he's about 6'5" and would gladly rip your head off on any field of competition, yet claims to be a pacifist and drives a Prius, so I'm not sure he can be trusted.

Disco and Mrs. Disco,

Another BBL member here. You've done the world a great service. My hope is that we can now all move together toward a better world of doughnut enjoyment. While I'm a bit chagrined that you selected DD over my beloved KK, you explained the reasons for your preference and that's fine.

My more serious concern, however, is that you've vastly undervalued the standard glazed. People like to say they want choices, but ultimately, they go back to tried and true options. Any scramble should have a base of approximately 40 percent glazed and then build from there. Throw in a fancy pants frosted or two and then work in the jelly and chocolate options as you so expertly suggest here and you're on your way to a product mix that should work for most gatherings.

Thanks for venturing into the waters here. After this, we'll let you have your blog back. Promise.

"BRITISH HOME SECRETARY TO QUIT OVER EXPENSE SCANDAL REPORTS"

We could use some Discos' expertise to sort this out!

What DEEP stuff...like deep creame filled foot-long type stuff...

as a yankee-bred, dunkin donut-loving graduate of the SEC (university of kentucky), who was, of course, schooled as an undergraduate in the subtle art of lingual-digital krispy kreme glaze removal, i feel compelled to note a few holes in your model.

first, you are apparently holding danish ceteris paribus. i implore you not to underestimate the power of entenmann's. recall -- entenmann's makes those addicting chocolate frosted donuts that come eight-in-a-box and hold magical powers over the just-awakened breakfaster when said box o' donuts is refrigerated. and their coffee crumb cake is stellar. rich, buttery and flaky. reminds me of my grandma's house in new jersey.

ah, east coast memories. your harvard boys surely know of entenmann's? their omission is shocking. quite frankly shocking. i expect that kind of shoddiness out of yale, but harvard? no way.

however, holding equal all things danish, i am surprised that your harvard economists didn't take a more keynesian approach (i was instructed to suspect all ivy leaguers for secret neo-new dealists).

in the keynesian model, donut (or doughnut) deficits don't matter. one simply drives to the store and buys more donuts. or, one intentionally OVERBUYS donuts to begin with, thus not only ensuring adequate supply for fantasy baseball pastry feasters, but also securing long-term jobs for donut manufacturers. jobs thus secured, manufacturers and manufacturers' employees taxes are then dumped back into the government's coffers, which then, in turn, funds your harvard boys' grants, securing their income, which then is used to purchase MORE donuts.

donuts not eaten are then given to homeless shelters to fight the war on poverty, or, in extreme cases, dumped in favor of newer, fresher donuts. either way -- it's all the same in the economic process.

this does run the risk of donut price inflation, though. and periodically, the data does indicate that the proper descriptive donut economic model does indeed flip between a classical or neo-classical model to the keynesian model and back again. for example, after the stock market crash of 1929, we found that hoover's neo-classical donut policies were no longer accurate for the donut data at hand; the government under FDR took on a more keynesian policy model and, over time, donut production and consumption geared up again. donut neo-classicists often attribute this to hyper-demand for donuts to feed the troops during the second world war -- the USO alone accounted for 50% of donut sales in the period 1942 - 1945, and another 15% of american donut stockpiles were shipped by convoy to the UK and russia under the lend-lease act -- but this doe overlook the fact that donut sales steadily increased even in the subsequent after-war period.

it wasn't until the late 1960s that donut sales began to tail off again, and we found that the neo-classical model again seemed to better describe the donut data. under nixon, the last vesitges of the yeast standard were finally swept away, allowing krispy kreme and other upstart producers to experiment with heretofore "undesirable" or "shaky" donut production models.

the donut market hit a brief snag in the 1980s, with the great bakery and loan scandal of 1987, but overall, the deregulated market seemed to work well and production and consumption were bullish.

venerable dunkin donuts, after briefly experimenting with its now-infamous "new donut" recipe, regained market share with a nostalgic "time to make the donuts!" campaign highlighting the "relaunch" of its classic boston kreme recipe and the tireless, early-morning devotion of its army of front-line, middle-aged, balding employees with funny paper hats.

even canada's national brand of pride -- tim horton's -- managed to grab share in the US market, as NAFTA and other free-market policies of the reagan-bush-clinton years made donut imports cheaper in america.

we now suspect, of course, that exponential donut market growth of the dot-dough era was largely non-real, fueled by faulty accounting and lack of congressional oversight. the subsequent donut crash of 2003, amid the atkins diet crisis, left the US donut indutry a pastry shell of its former self, leading to retractions in overall donut consumption and the pullback of many producers' expansion. tim horton's, which had expanded almost to the mason-dixon line, can now no longer be found south of columbus, ohio.

in a sequence eerily reminiscent of robert e. lee's disastrous 1863 invasion of the north, upstart southern donut powerhouse krispy kreme, which had advanced well into tradtional dunkin territory during the nineties, underwent bankruptcy and has now withdrawn to below it's pre-dot dough saturation level.

overall, i am disappointed your model does not take historic model flips into account. i might expect such a one-sided explanation out of a strict neo-classical scholar like milton friedman, or a dyed-in-the-wool keynesian like paul krugman, but is it too much to ask for a little historical persepctive and balance?

i'm axin' ya.

Wow, that is a good chunk of research. Maybe even more than what I did for some of my projects in school.

But how can you have been in Texas so recently and not know that Shipley Donuts are the best donuts?

txag08,

shipley may be good, but, as with schuler's (springfield, ohio) or busken bakery (cincinnati, ohio), disco and the harvard brain trust's donut model cannot take microbakeries' handcrafted, atisan products into account.

it's like talking about the beer market just after the anchor steam revolution, but before microbreweries became so widespread that one could quantify microbrew production sales in the aggregate. yes, the niche marketers are out there, but they do not yet constitute an industry-wide "movement."

besides, schuler's chocolate-covered, cream-filled would throw the whole model outta whack -- they're DD boston kreme on steroids. they're the difference between 1991 barry bonds and 2003 barry bonds, without the noggin'-expanding and post-hormonal rages.

jonathan g.

Impressive historical recitation, redlegs. But what your analysis fails to account for are the theological implications of donut creation. How else can we explain the unholy combination in some sectors of both sprinkles and creme filling in the same donut other than to acknowledge the existence of Satan? If only our Harvard brain trust league had a former minister who could weigh in on the issue. Hmmn.

As far as the microbakeries, I've been advocating the merits of Montgomery Donuts in suburban DC for years. They have a glazed donut so big and dense, you need a hand cart and the freight elevator to get a dozen to the car. It's like eating a collapsing neutron star. I once carved up a Montgomery glazed donut like a Thanksgiving turkey and fed my family of six for a week. You simply don't find that level of craftmanship at the big chains.

This really is like the BBL. A little sarcasm, a little wit, and then a Kentucky guy brings perspective and depth to the whole conversation. Thanks, Redlegs!!

Damon

Commish of the BBL

Disco, as the resident former minister of the BBL, I'll have to answer the call to arms summoned by Mr. Wunderli.

Mr. Wunderli, as usual, fails to get the real theological issues in play. Any proper understanding of donut choice has to start with the question of whether we really have choice over which form of sugary salvation we will enter.

It comes down to Calvin versus Arminius. And as often is the case, personal backgrounds are critical to the ultimate theological position staked.

On the one hand, you have Calvin, who being Swiss, grew up in a breakfast impoverished culture and thus saw the futility of even hoping for chocolate, creme filled, or even glazed options. Like all the Swiss, Calvin as a boy woke up to a bowl of flaxseed and museli doused in goat's milk - day after day after day. The utter inability to even conceive of a future different that led to his pastry predestinarianism.

Arminius, Calvin's theological nemisis, grew up in Denmark, probably the world center of pastry diversity - so much so that its citizens were named appropriately. It's not a surprise that Arminius thought that one's ultimate breakfast destiny was not handed to you in some foreordained scramble, but rather the outcome of one's own calculations.

So, Disco, while you helped resolve the technical debate, you've still left the eternal theological issues unresolved.

But perhaps you might help on some other age old moral debates in the league: namely is Roger Clemens the anti-Christ? To answer that, you're going to dissect the moral dynamics in play if Roger flings a donut off the Empire State Building. We'll come back to you on that.

i confess i have never experienced the intrusion of theology into a strict debate over utils and supply-side vs. demand-driven donuts economics.

i do find it telling, given harvard's puritanical new england roots, that the theological paradigm is set up strictly as a calvin vs. arminius dichotomy.

as a practicing half-lutheran pseudo-buddhist, i understand the gravitation toward framing theological donut debate here in western terms; however, i belive you thoroughly discount (at your peril) non-western theological beliefs.

in buddhism alone, we learn that existence (samsara) is a wheel -- a donut shape, if you will.

in answer to your roger clemens as anti-Christ question, the model fits in certain aspects -- he will be loved by all and believed to be Messiah -- but we now know, of course, that the world did not end in judgment at a fiery pit with roger's downfall.

i'm not sure the anti-Christ is in baseball right now -- my money's on tom brady (sorry, harvard).

however, if anti-Christ does appear in baseball form and if he is at the shadowy center of the steroids scandal, it is interesting to note that the truth-teller, spurned by the masses in the end times in favor of anti-Christ (and thus the risen Christ figure), becomes jose canseco.

hmm . . . jose canseco -> JC -> Jesus Christ . . .

!!!

jonathan g.