"Ouch, My BABIP" or "Living the Single Life"
No, ladies. I'm not single. I need to put an end to that dream for you right here. If, despite your overwhelming disappointment, you decide to continue reading, you'll see where I get my second title from.
First, some background on the "Ouch, My BABIP":
While mired in a mini-slump to start my Double-A season this year, I wrote a blog post complaining about my BABIP [1] publicly in hopes of bringing it back towards the mean (approximately .290). At the time I wrote the post, Double-A hitters had gone 14-40 off me when putting the ball in play, which makes for a BABIP of .350. I complained about it, and from that point forward, batters went 19-for-92 off me when they put the ball in play; a BABIP of .207! It made for a combined BABIP of .250 which was a tick higher than years past for me, but much more stomach-able than .350.
I hope that post didn't come off as whiny, but rather was informative and interesting. I will attempt to do the same here because I'm nearly at my wits end. After the success I had in Double-A this year, I was promoted to Triple-A. I started out in Omaha doing decently, but even so, felt a bit unlucky again. What I experienced to start the season was nothing compared to what came next. It only got worse from there.
I didn't want to have to write this. Seriously I didn't. But it seems every time I take the mound, I'm in a messed up way making my case "better" for the post and it's killing me on the field. I have had this saved as a draft for a week now, and after giving up 21 hits in my last 10.1 innings pitched, it's high time I update the numbers and finally post something to put an end to it.
Here are some stats from my Triple-A season so far this year. I've made 21 appearances, and below I have broken down the stats into my first 10 appearances and my last 11. I left my ERA blank on the second half to build the suspense, but judging by the background info, I'm sure you can guess where this is going.
Not much really has seemed to change from my first 10 appearances to my next 11, right? I have cut down on my extra base hits per nine innings (XBH/9), which seemed to be a slight problem for me to start. I have maintained my strikeout rate at 3.8 per nine innings (yeah, I know that's not good, but my K rate has never really been that high; it's a product of my style of pitching, which I have deemed: "Make them hit it softly, not hardly") and my ground-out to air-out ratio (GO/AO) has stayed almost the same at about 1.5. The rate at which I'm throwing strikes (Strike %) has been almost identical and my pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) have actually decreased, which is something I like to see. So what's different? Well those of you paying attention would immediately notice my walk numbers (BB/9) have doubled! That's the problem, I'm walking too many guys. Well, Greg Maddux's career BB/9 rate was 1.8, so in my worst moments having a better walk rate than Maddux isn't anything I feel guilty about. I don't think the walks are the issue.
Alright, enough with the suspense. I'm embarrassed to say this, but my ERA in my last 11 games is 6.48.
That's horrible. Like terrible, horrible. I have given up 12 ER in my last 12 games. Nine of those earned runs have come in my last five outings. So what's the difference?
I went from giving up 6.5 singles per nine innings in the first half to 13.5 singles per nine since. I have given up 19 singles in my last 10.1 innings. It's bizarre. I have given up 3 or more singles in one inning in five of those last 11 appearances. I gave up 7 singles last outing. For some reason beyond my comprehension, despite being head over heels for Mrs. Disco, I find myself again "Living the Single Life"...
It's bad now, but even in my first 10 outings, it seemed like everything was falling in for hits (when my BABIP was .324) so I did everything I could to not walk guys and limit the damage. Despite the "bad luck" and higher-than-average BABIP, I was able to do so and maintained a 2.66 ERA. But in my last 11 outings, my BABIP has gone to .412 and my ERA has suffered almost three-fold.
If, at the point of my promotion, you told me through my first 40.1 innings in Triple-A I would have surrendered only one home run, and walked only five batters, I would have been happy to hear the news. I would have figured I'd be pretty happy with my results. Let the rest of the chips fall where they may, but by keeping the ball in the ballpark and making guys swing the bat, those facts would indicate I had been executing the way I set out to (again "Make them hit it softly, not hardly"...it's clever...I swear...It's kind of a pun..."hardly"?...Bueller). If you added that I would give up eight doubles and two triples, I wouldn't be ecstatic because backing up bases is never fun, but 11 extra-base hits in 40.1 innings is pretty darn good. Now, if you added that my ERA was 4.24 due mostly to the fact I've surrendered more than a single per inning (42 in 40.1 IP), I would be left scratching my head. It wouldn't really make sense. And I would respectfully decline.
For the Triple-A season my BABIP is .366 which is way "above" average. The difference between .366 and .290 may not seem like that much---a .366 hitter is good, but so is a .290 hitter--so go the other way and think of the difference between a .290 hitter and a .214 hitter. That's stark. Look recently at the difference between .424 and .290 and we can go from Mauer to Mendoza pretty quickly. In my case, the difference between .366 and .290 is an extra 11 hits on the year. In only 40 innings, I could definitely use 11 hits being erased off the board.
Further, as I will get to in a second, if I were able to repeat my last two years' Double-A .250 BABIP performance, you'd have to erase 17 hits! Could 17 hits scattered over the course of the year lead to 10 runs? It's not inconceivable to think so. In a heartbeat I'd take the same performance on my part, but shave off 10 runs to now have a 2.01 ERA instead of a 4.24. If my BABIP repeated itself, I wouldn't have pitched any different so far this year, but could have a 2.01 ERA.
I was asked in an interview this off-season about my low BABIP in 2008 and whether my 1.64 ERA was maybe lower than it deserved to be and if my BABIP would perhaps regress to the mean in 2009. In the interview I argued I had more control over BABIP because of my submarine pitching style and my ability to induce soft contact. And, as I mentioned above, despite an "unlucky" start, I supported my theory and was able to have a low BABIP in Double-A again this year and rode that to a 0.98 ERA in 36.2 innings. My BABIP ended up being .270 overall in Double-A this year, and at the time of my promotion, I can guarantee I was more than happy to claim proud responsibility for my continued low BABIP in 2009.
If I claimed responsibility when things were going well, then when they aren't, I can't just chalk it up to bad luck. If I had a hand in making my BABIP .250 in two Double-A seasons, I have had a hand in making it .366 and .424 recently here in Triple-A. So has the .366 BABIP here in Triple-A made me a believer I have no impact on what happens after the batter makes contact? Absolutely not. I still take credit for the low BABIP in Double-A and I will--gulp--take credit for it now in Triple-A.
Maybe, but even that doesn't quite add up. Through my first four games in Triple-A my BABIP was .268: I was still inducing soft contact. Through seven games and 20 innings (exactly half of my innings here in Triple-A to date) it was .283, not amazing, but still I was keeping it under average. Well, in my next 21 innings it has been .424. Not huge sample sizes, but it does seem like my first 20 innings everything was just about on par with my past performances and then the wheels came off. Again, what happened?
I really don't know. Honestly I don't. I've been trying to answer that question myself for over a month now. I have used the term "luck" in quotes in this post to indicate the BABIP theory hints at the rate of hits being random chance. I don't fully discount the theory (and more in-depth reading will indicate I have dumbed it down and even BABIP-believers admit 7% of BABIP is attributed to skill) I take full responsibility for this upswing in BABIP, though. I have been giving up more line drives than I ever have before. Now, in my defense, the fact I have given up only two doubles in my last 11 games, I will say, for the most part, the line drives haven't all been hit squarely on the sweet spot. I have given up a lot of hits that have been struck decently--not great--but have had a trajectory to drop them out over the infielders and in before the outfielders.
If these hits had left the bat at a downward trajectory, they would almost certainly be ground-outs as, typically, only very hard hit and well-placed ground balls get through for hits (though, again in my defense, in my last two outings I have given up three chopped infield hits). So, it seems I need to get more ground balls. But last year, when I had a 1.64 ERA and a BABIP of .235, my GO/AO was 1.57. This year in Triple-A it's 1.5. As a submarining sinker-baller, you'd perhaps expect higher numbers, but my slider is more of a pop-up pitch because, in comparison to my sinking fastball it appears to float and guys typically hit it in the air. As a quick example, in my recent outing in Tacoma, I recorded 4 "air outs" and three of them were soft flies to the short stop off of my slider. I haven't had many air outs where the outfielder has tracked the ball to the wall and made a great catch.
When the batter puts the ball in play, there are three types of contact: Ground Balls, Line Drives, and Fly Balls. Hitters like to hit line drives and BABIP info here will show you why. For me, it has seemed like I still get ground balls and I get some balls in the air, but it's the middle ground--the line drives--that I have inadvertently induced more of. Line drive gives a connotation of "hard hit", but I don't think I've been giving up harder-hit balls, just balls that have the right trajectory to fall in for hits. It could be something as simple as a tiny mechanical flaw that is limiting the sink on my pitches. It could be a matter of poor location of pitches or poor pitch selection. It could be that I have unconsciously been trying to get my BABIP so ridiculously high this blog post would be a bigger hit. It could be a quick fix or something that will come with time and experience. I am acutely aware of it and will find the solution if I die trying.
I have tried a number of things so far and I had a quick glimpse of success that I'm holding on to. Every athlete will talk about certain days where they are "in the zone" or "feeling it". Those feelings come about in every day life as well. Certain days I stand on the mound and if you ran the '27 Yankees up the plate I would mow them down. Other days, it feels like the Dutch Little Leaguers--even minus the Curaçoans--would be impossible to get out. For whatever reason, I have had a higher percentage of the latter than I've ever had in my career and look forward to the former coming to visit and stay for a while. In Portland last week, I switched something minuscule in my arm-swing on my slider and everything seemed to click that day. I came in with runners on in a 1-run game and got the last four outs in 14 pitches (12 for strikes) on three weak grounders and a soft pop-up. It was the Beavers I was facing, but I had that glimpse of being in the zone and sending the Yankees down in order. It's a euphoric feeling and I'm holding on to it.
I will be the first to admit I haven't thrown well in Triple-A. I haven't been happy with how I've felt out on the mound and haven't been happy with the results. It's been beyond frustrating at times, but it can also be a learning experience. I have been lucky in my short submarining career to have had success at each of the levels at which I've played. I am not deterred in my on-field goal to pitch successfully for a long time in the major leagues by these recent struggles; I plan to use it as an opportunity to better prepare me.
In the meantime I will hold on to that feeling from Portland and I will take solace in the fact that despite not having thrown well at a new level of competition and perhaps seemingly getting a bit unlucky [2], I still have an ERA under a million [3], which is perhaps a good sign.
I take even more solace in the prospect of using this post as a means to now actively change things around like last time.
[1] First, I should probably stop and explain what BABIP is really quickly. If you know already, go ahead and skip this paragraph. BABIP stands for Batting Average of Balls In Play. There is a theory behind it that almost all of what happens after the batter puts the ball in play (meaning in fair territory and not over the outfield fence) is chance. I'm dumbing this down, but the average BABIP of major league pitchers has been right around .290 for years and doesn't seem to move much at all. So, if you give up a home run or walk the batter or strike him out, you had control over that. But once he hits it in play, he should get a hit 30% of the time. The idea is, if a pitcher has a breakout season, yet you look at his BABIP that year and it was .200, he wasn't much better, he was just lucky. In other words, the batted balls just happened to land in fielders' mitts that year. [back]
[2] Again, I don't intend to fully equate BABIP with luck as I said before, but regardless of how poorly I've thrown, .424 is .069 points higher than current worst BABIP of any pitcher in the big leagues and is exactly double the BABIP of Sean Burnett who has pitched in 62 games for the Pirates and Nationals. [back]
[3] It's cumulatively at 4.24 now, which isn't abysmal, but up to this point is the highest ERA I've ever sported. [back]
First, some background on the "Ouch, My BABIP":
While mired in a mini-slump to start my Double-A season this year, I wrote a blog post complaining about my BABIP [1] publicly in hopes of bringing it back towards the mean (approximately .290). At the time I wrote the post, Double-A hitters had gone 14-40 off me when putting the ball in play, which makes for a BABIP of .350. I complained about it, and from that point forward, batters went 19-for-92 off me when they put the ball in play; a BABIP of .207! It made for a combined BABIP of .250 which was a tick higher than years past for me, but much more stomach-able than .350.
I hope that post didn't come off as whiny, but rather was informative and interesting. I will attempt to do the same here because I'm nearly at my wits end. After the success I had in Double-A this year, I was promoted to Triple-A. I started out in Omaha doing decently, but even so, felt a bit unlucky again. What I experienced to start the season was nothing compared to what came next. It only got worse from there.
I didn't want to have to write this. Seriously I didn't. But it seems every time I take the mound, I'm in a messed up way making my case "better" for the post and it's killing me on the field. I have had this saved as a draft for a week now, and after giving up 21 hits in my last 10.1 innings pitched, it's high time I update the numbers and finally post something to put an end to it.
Here are some stats from my Triple-A season so far this year. I've made 21 appearances, and below I have broken down the stats into my first 10 appearances and my last 11. I left my ERA blank on the second half to build the suspense, but judging by the background info, I'm sure you can guess where this is going.
| ERA | XBH/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | GO/AO | Strike % | P/PA | |
| First 10 | 2.66 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 68% | 3.7 |
| Next 11 | ???? | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 66% | 3.3 |
Not much really has seemed to change from my first 10 appearances to my next 11, right? I have cut down on my extra base hits per nine innings (XBH/9), which seemed to be a slight problem for me to start. I have maintained my strikeout rate at 3.8 per nine innings (yeah, I know that's not good, but my K rate has never really been that high; it's a product of my style of pitching, which I have deemed: "Make them hit it softly, not hardly") and my ground-out to air-out ratio (GO/AO) has stayed almost the same at about 1.5. The rate at which I'm throwing strikes (Strike %) has been almost identical and my pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) have actually decreased, which is something I like to see. So what's different? Well those of you paying attention would immediately notice my walk numbers (BB/9) have doubled! That's the problem, I'm walking too many guys. Well, Greg Maddux's career BB/9 rate was 1.8, so in my worst moments having a better walk rate than Maddux isn't anything I feel guilty about. I don't think the walks are the issue.
Alright, enough with the suspense. I'm embarrassed to say this, but my ERA in my last 11 games is 6.48.
That's horrible. Like terrible, horrible. I have given up 12 ER in my last 12 games. Nine of those earned runs have come in my last five outings. So what's the difference?
I went from giving up 6.5 singles per nine innings in the first half to 13.5 singles per nine since. I have given up 19 singles in my last 10.1 innings. It's bizarre. I have given up 3 or more singles in one inning in five of those last 11 appearances. I gave up 7 singles last outing. For some reason beyond my comprehension, despite being head over heels for Mrs. Disco, I find myself again "Living the Single Life"...
It's bad now, but even in my first 10 outings, it seemed like everything was falling in for hits (when my BABIP was .324) so I did everything I could to not walk guys and limit the damage. Despite the "bad luck" and higher-than-average BABIP, I was able to do so and maintained a 2.66 ERA. But in my last 11 outings, my BABIP has gone to .412 and my ERA has suffered almost three-fold.
If, at the point of my promotion, you told me through my first 40.1 innings in Triple-A I would have surrendered only one home run, and walked only five batters, I would have been happy to hear the news. I would have figured I'd be pretty happy with my results. Let the rest of the chips fall where they may, but by keeping the ball in the ballpark and making guys swing the bat, those facts would indicate I had been executing the way I set out to (again "Make them hit it softly, not hardly"...it's clever...I swear...It's kind of a pun..."hardly"?...Bueller). If you added that I would give up eight doubles and two triples, I wouldn't be ecstatic because backing up bases is never fun, but 11 extra-base hits in 40.1 innings is pretty darn good. Now, if you added that my ERA was 4.24 due mostly to the fact I've surrendered more than a single per inning (42 in 40.1 IP), I would be left scratching my head. It wouldn't really make sense. And I would respectfully decline.
For the Triple-A season my BABIP is .366 which is way "above" average. The difference between .366 and .290 may not seem like that much---a .366 hitter is good, but so is a .290 hitter--so go the other way and think of the difference between a .290 hitter and a .214 hitter. That's stark. Look recently at the difference between .424 and .290 and we can go from Mauer to Mendoza pretty quickly. In my case, the difference between .366 and .290 is an extra 11 hits on the year. In only 40 innings, I could definitely use 11 hits being erased off the board.
Further, as I will get to in a second, if I were able to repeat my last two years' Double-A .250 BABIP performance, you'd have to erase 17 hits! Could 17 hits scattered over the course of the year lead to 10 runs? It's not inconceivable to think so. In a heartbeat I'd take the same performance on my part, but shave off 10 runs to now have a 2.01 ERA instead of a 4.24. If my BABIP repeated itself, I wouldn't have pitched any different so far this year, but could have a 2.01 ERA.
I was asked in an interview this off-season about my low BABIP in 2008 and whether my 1.64 ERA was maybe lower than it deserved to be and if my BABIP would perhaps regress to the mean in 2009. In the interview I argued I had more control over BABIP because of my submarine pitching style and my ability to induce soft contact. And, as I mentioned above, despite an "unlucky" start, I supported my theory and was able to have a low BABIP in Double-A again this year and rode that to a 0.98 ERA in 36.2 innings. My BABIP ended up being .270 overall in Double-A this year, and at the time of my promotion, I can guarantee I was more than happy to claim proud responsibility for my continued low BABIP in 2009.
If I claimed responsibility when things were going well, then when they aren't, I can't just chalk it up to bad luck. If I had a hand in making my BABIP .250 in two Double-A seasons, I have had a hand in making it .366 and .424 recently here in Triple-A. So has the .366 BABIP here in Triple-A made me a believer I have no impact on what happens after the batter makes contact? Absolutely not. I still take credit for the low BABIP in Double-A and I will--gulp--take credit for it now in Triple-A.
Maybe Triple-A hitters are just that much better?
Maybe, but even that doesn't quite add up. Through my first four games in Triple-A my BABIP was .268: I was still inducing soft contact. Through seven games and 20 innings (exactly half of my innings here in Triple-A to date) it was .283, not amazing, but still I was keeping it under average. Well, in my next 21 innings it has been .424. Not huge sample sizes, but it does seem like my first 20 innings everything was just about on par with my past performances and then the wheels came off. Again, what happened?
I really don't know. Honestly I don't. I've been trying to answer that question myself for over a month now. I have used the term "luck" in quotes in this post to indicate the BABIP theory hints at the rate of hits being random chance. I don't fully discount the theory (and more in-depth reading will indicate I have dumbed it down and even BABIP-believers admit 7% of BABIP is attributed to skill) I take full responsibility for this upswing in BABIP, though. I have been giving up more line drives than I ever have before. Now, in my defense, the fact I have given up only two doubles in my last 11 games, I will say, for the most part, the line drives haven't all been hit squarely on the sweet spot. I have given up a lot of hits that have been struck decently--not great--but have had a trajectory to drop them out over the infielders and in before the outfielders.
If these hits had left the bat at a downward trajectory, they would almost certainly be ground-outs as, typically, only very hard hit and well-placed ground balls get through for hits (though, again in my defense, in my last two outings I have given up three chopped infield hits). So, it seems I need to get more ground balls. But last year, when I had a 1.64 ERA and a BABIP of .235, my GO/AO was 1.57. This year in Triple-A it's 1.5. As a submarining sinker-baller, you'd perhaps expect higher numbers, but my slider is more of a pop-up pitch because, in comparison to my sinking fastball it appears to float and guys typically hit it in the air. As a quick example, in my recent outing in Tacoma, I recorded 4 "air outs" and three of them were soft flies to the short stop off of my slider. I haven't had many air outs where the outfielder has tracked the ball to the wall and made a great catch.
When the batter puts the ball in play, there are three types of contact: Ground Balls, Line Drives, and Fly Balls. Hitters like to hit line drives and BABIP info here will show you why. For me, it has seemed like I still get ground balls and I get some balls in the air, but it's the middle ground--the line drives--that I have inadvertently induced more of. Line drive gives a connotation of "hard hit", but I don't think I've been giving up harder-hit balls, just balls that have the right trajectory to fall in for hits. It could be something as simple as a tiny mechanical flaw that is limiting the sink on my pitches. It could be a matter of poor location of pitches or poor pitch selection. It could be that I have unconsciously been trying to get my BABIP so ridiculously high this blog post would be a bigger hit. It could be a quick fix or something that will come with time and experience. I am acutely aware of it and will find the solution if I die trying.
I have tried a number of things so far and I had a quick glimpse of success that I'm holding on to. Every athlete will talk about certain days where they are "in the zone" or "feeling it". Those feelings come about in every day life as well. Certain days I stand on the mound and if you ran the '27 Yankees up the plate I would mow them down. Other days, it feels like the Dutch Little Leaguers--even minus the Curaçoans--would be impossible to get out. For whatever reason, I have had a higher percentage of the latter than I've ever had in my career and look forward to the former coming to visit and stay for a while. In Portland last week, I switched something minuscule in my arm-swing on my slider and everything seemed to click that day. I came in with runners on in a 1-run game and got the last four outs in 14 pitches (12 for strikes) on three weak grounders and a soft pop-up. It was the Beavers I was facing, but I had that glimpse of being in the zone and sending the Yankees down in order. It's a euphoric feeling and I'm holding on to it.
I will be the first to admit I haven't thrown well in Triple-A. I haven't been happy with how I've felt out on the mound and haven't been happy with the results. It's been beyond frustrating at times, but it can also be a learning experience. I have been lucky in my short submarining career to have had success at each of the levels at which I've played. I am not deterred in my on-field goal to pitch successfully for a long time in the major leagues by these recent struggles; I plan to use it as an opportunity to better prepare me.
In the meantime I will hold on to that feeling from Portland and I will take solace in the fact that despite not having thrown well at a new level of competition and perhaps seemingly getting a bit unlucky [2], I still have an ERA under a million [3], which is perhaps a good sign.
I take even more solace in the prospect of using this post as a means to now actively change things around like last time.
[1] First, I should probably stop and explain what BABIP is really quickly. If you know already, go ahead and skip this paragraph. BABIP stands for Batting Average of Balls In Play. There is a theory behind it that almost all of what happens after the batter puts the ball in play (meaning in fair territory and not over the outfield fence) is chance. I'm dumbing this down, but the average BABIP of major league pitchers has been right around .290 for years and doesn't seem to move much at all. So, if you give up a home run or walk the batter or strike him out, you had control over that. But once he hits it in play, he should get a hit 30% of the time. The idea is, if a pitcher has a breakout season, yet you look at his BABIP that year and it was .200, he wasn't much better, he was just lucky. In other words, the batted balls just happened to land in fielders' mitts that year. [back]
[2] Again, I don't intend to fully equate BABIP with luck as I said before, but regardless of how poorly I've thrown, .424 is .069 points higher than current worst BABIP of any pitcher in the big leagues and is exactly double the BABIP of Sean Burnett who has pitched in 62 games for the Pirates and Nationals. [back]
[3] It's cumulatively at 4.24 now, which isn't abysmal, but up to this point is the highest ERA I've ever sported. [back]
The act of writing something down - the organizing, the editing, the rewrites - can help a lot. It is a version of self-help. You can re-read it and use it to make yourself better. OR after putting all your frustrations down on paper (or computer screen) you can then close that chapter on your life and move on. Good luck! I know you'll find your way back to the quality of pitching that you want and know that you are capable of.
Julia
http://werbiefitz.mlblogs.com/
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it seemed to me the other night that your speed wasn't varying much, but i'd never watched you pitch before and radar gun calibrations are always questionable. it did look like they were having more trouble with your fastball. caught a couple guys fishing for the low pitch.
do they keep film on you? maybe you're tipping your pitches? you do say that you've felt uncomfortable since the promotion -- maybe that's coming through? or maybe your chakras are out of balance because you aren't breathing through your eyelids like fernando valenzuela.
hang in there, disco. JG
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So the question that I would ask is (since you haven't put it in), what has your line drive rate been in the last 11 games? And for that matter what it's been in your career.
I guess I'm a little leary about you being able to keep the BABIP into a 0.260 range. Looking at a great article that Bill James wrote in his 2009 Gold Mine, about 21% of Balls In Play are Line Drives and they land for hits about 70% of the time. Then typically ground balls go for hits about 24% of the time. So assuming that you have say more than average GB% (say 50% as compared to the mean of about 41%), then right there if you assume that all fly balls were outs (typically if you have a real low HR/rate, then it'll be about 90%), that's still a .273 BABIP. With 10% of fly-balls in play going for doubles off the wall, etc., the BABIP comes back to .300 BABIP.
A good question would be if on your line-drives, you've been able to limit the BA to below .700?
Using the last 10 game stats that I got from your oroyals.com page, it seems that you've given up 24 hits against 73 batters faced. Using some "reverse math" I'm going to estimate that your LD% has been more like 33% in the last 10 games than the more normal 21%. So of the 64 Balls in play, there's been 21 line drives instead of the more expected 14.
Doing the binomial, the likelihood that this is just "bad luck" seems a little low, i.e., if your "true" LD% was 21%, then the likelihood of giving up 21 or more line drives in 64 batters is only 2%.
Would be happy to discuss more off-line.
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http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=496529
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In case you missed this, perhaps a certain major leaguer should have read Disco's "Strikeout Looking" post…
"Beltre could be out for season with [redacted] injury":
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlesports/archives/176447.asp
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The sad part is that the Royals don't understand statistical analysis like you and I, Disco, and so they look at that 4.24 ERA and maybe you don't get a Sept. call up like you DESERVE. I was born in KC and have lived 20 of my 21 years on earth here. I love baseball, I live for Sports and I am the biggest die-hard Royals fan you will find. But sometimes I wish I had been born in Denver, or San Fran, or Boston.. or ANYWHERE except for Kansas City. You see, Dayton Moore just doesn't understand statistical analysis and the importance of finding the best VALUE. :( I always wanted Paul DePodesta as GM instead of DM anyway, but with the lack of a promotion of Kila and Disco it just makes me want to cry.
Anyway, this is the best blog I have ever read, and I have read them all. Keep on Keepin on.. and upon your promotion to MLB (with whichever team it may be) I promise I'll get a "Hayes" Jersey T-shirt.. (Hey, I am a college kid afterall) But after you win your first of 3 Cy Youngs (the first of which will be followed by a Nobel award for baseball statistical analysis) I will get an ACTUAL Hayes Jersey.
Oh, and as an aside, this is not ACTUALLY Don Greinke [Zack Greinke (or his dad)] It's just a big Greinke / Royals obsessed fan.
- Jonesing for a KC Disco
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